Humanist Discussion Group, Vol. 14, No. 314.
Centre for Computing in the Humanities, King's College London
<http://www.princeton.edu/~mccarty/humanist/>
<http://www.kcl.ac.uk/humanities/cch/humanist/>
Date: Thu, 05 Oct 2000 20:18:39 +0100
From: Randall Pierce <rpierce@jsucc.jsu.edu>
Subject: Minsky quote
Mr. Minsky has the right perspective on futuristics. I have heard, as
did he, "experts" declare the limits of technology and create "laws"
delineating what can be expected from machines. Robert Heinlein, a
science fiction writer who died in the late 1980's, devised what might
be called the statistical curves of invention and technological
development. The bottom line shows a very slightly ascending curve from
the past into the future. This is what most "experts" expect. Another
curve ascends about twice as fast, and it represents what the inventors
and developers of technology forecast. The third and upper curve rises
at an expotential rate. It represents actual progress in a field. Man
seems to be so "conservative" in his acceptance of progress(whatever
that may be defined to be.) He, Heinlein, also said, "A ten-day wonder
is accepted as a matter of course on the eleventh day." A final
quotation: Arthur Clarke, scientist and science-fiction writer, was
quoted: "When a scientist says that something is possible, he is most
probably right. When he says that something is impossible, he is
probably wrong." We need to listen to our modern-day "prophets" as well
as becoming involved in our technology. Thank you for your consideration
... Randall
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